Maybe Mr. Trump Is On To Something

GOP Presidential candidate Mr. Donald Trump shook the news and the GOP field by opting out of the final GOP debate leading up to the Iowa Caucus. However, where some see plausible weakness, one could argue Mr. Trumps move is both calculating and self-preserving. At the heart of the issue, this could be an exhibition of a true power move by the Republican candidate.

From a certain angle, one could argue the following (and more) about Mr. Trump's power move of his very obvious and voluntary absence:

• While we can expect a fair amount of jabs thrown his way during the debate over his absence, the candidates would be losing numerous opportunities to make up ground on each other by focusing on the only person that's missing from the fray. The comparatively minimal jabs outweighs the potential devastating body blows of losing a costly exchange to a competitor on a topic that's of particular interest to the Iowan electorate. In his absence the rest of the field will be left to debate each other possibly leading to a growing parity in the middle-tier while Mr. Trump maintains his dedicated voter base.


• Mr. Trump has proven time and time again that his soundbites and actions do not have a tangibly negative impact on his standing in the polls. What would cripple a middle-tier candidate like Governor Bush or Governor Kasich bounces off of the impenetrable iron armor that Mr. Trump has created for himself. Perhaps a bit simpleton of an approach, but how would this action lead us to a new end-state? Expect Mr. Trump to hold on to his low 30s in polling both in Iowa and nationwide. 


• Getting more to the heart of this, is this not an exhibition of one the qualities that has drawn so many people toward this candidate? Mr. Trump's base finds his unapologetic trail-blazing to be quite magnetic. He has consistently pitted himself in an adversarial relationship with the press and this is the display of force that brings the entire struggle to a head. Moreover, the only other institution disdained more than the media is Congress, and Mr. Trump is taking a firm stand against both the Beltway business model and the media networks during his campaign. This might earn him a bit more than the rest might be willing to concede as of 28 January.

Meanwhile, the greatest likelihood here is that Senator Marco Rubio becomes the top target of the rest of the field on the main stage with Senator Cruz looking to separate himself further and the rest of the candidates attempting to win the 'Establishment Blessing' seeking ways to discredit Senator Rubio's record and experience. Iowa historically decides late, but, outside of some last minute jockeying, the major trends of the last several weeks look to prevail on 01 February.

Fascinating times are plentiful in both races and APN plans on keeping up with takes on it. APN will also be tweeting throughout the debate. Be sure to check in!