In short, the RNC has failed its party, and Reince Priebus' lack of leadership keeps the scatter-shot GOP field in a continued state of mayhem. The Establishment candidates have shown no sustained signs of life or true, long-term viability through two primary nights, and they are receiving no support or guidance from the national party. This is, of course, based on the key assumption here that what's good for the Establishment is good for the RNC and vice-versa.
Though we have to ask some key questions. Will an anger-based anti-establishment sentiment be the new normal for the GOP? Is the 'mainstream platform' of the party finally found itself completely out of touch with its base? Is there an ability for the national party to adapt? Is there a will to adapt?
The Republican insurgency averages about 51% of the national vote with the now remaining four candidates (to include three Establishment candidates) fighting and clawing for some standing. To be fair, anything is still very possible and no single candidate has a true stranglehold on the path to the nomination. Yet, to quote Bane in the Dark Knight Rises, do you feel like you're in control? The mainstream of the party clearly isn't. Traditional things like money and television ad campaigns just aren't amounting to what they used to.
Looking back through the numbers (source: NPR), how frightened must the Establishment be? Traditional campaigning is not working, at least not in Iowa or New Hampshire. Just pointing toward New Hampshire, the four establishment candidates combined for 45% of the vote with total advertising running them an aggregate $2,606 per vote. In contrast, Trump and Cruz combined for 47% of the vote while spending an aggregate $42 per vote.
Yes, you read that correctly.
I would love to debate the merits of what that all means, but will possibly leave that to a future post. Right now, I want to focus on the state of the GOP establishment and exactly how much worse it stands to get.
The last week of the Christie campaign and the post-New Hampshire primary exit of the New Jersey governor shook the foundation of this race. Chris Christie arguably has had and may have the most significant impact on the GOP for the entire election cycle. We were very well aware of the Marcomentum that was taking place after the Iowa Caucus; however, a stumble and stall of the Rubio campaign, caused by an assailing Christie at the last GOP debate, changed the questions we asked about the primary. We went from asking if the Establishment can possibly go into cruise control with a surging candidate to wondering if they even have a horse they can back.
Chris Christie, in what has been described as a political murder-suicide, assassinated the Rubio campaign and sent the Establishment cause into a free fall. Christie incorrectly calculated that assailing the rising Rubio would stifle the Senator's progress all while having the impact of setting himself apart from the rest of the Establishment. Instead, he reaped none of the benefits and tossed a softball into the wheelhouse of the GOP insurgency, who knocked it out of the park.
Instead of the Establishment finally having someone to rally around and begin to consolidate support for a long-term campaign, they have a mosh pit filled flailing candidates. To make matters even worse for the Establishment, on MSNBC's 'Morning Joe', Mr. Trump informed Scarborough that Christie called him on Tuesday night and the two of them had a long talk. The broad speculation is that Christie is trying to position himself in the Veep-stakes on the Republican ticket. The governor continues to try to make calculating moves but any potential backing of Mr. Trump will continue to bury the Establishment. That will be a real intriguing story-line to watch play out.
Governor Jeb Bush's camp has made indications of going 'scorched-Earth' on Rubio and Kasich to try and push the other two Establishment candidates out of the race. After observing how that entirely did not work for the Christie campaign, how does this seem like a good idea? If anything, Bush needs to focus on what had been working for Rubio and worked for Kasich in New Hampshire: a positive message. I would submit to you that inner-Establishment desecration will certainly push the insurgency over the top. So why not just try what has worked? If Bush drops out, he hasn't caused any irreparable damage to his Establishment colleagues and the negative campaigning and 'dirty' tactics can be left to Trump and Cruz. That is how you truly set yourself apart in this race. That's what at least shown some signs of working so far. Oh, but there is that wild card still in play, and he goes by W. I suspect he might be making an appearance on the trail sooner than later.
Governor Kasich is unfortunately a one-state wonder. Kasich hit his peak in New Hampshire and was a really nice story on Tuesday night. The shame here is that Kasich is just so darn likeable. He really is. The problem is that he is running a general election campaign during primary season. His more moderate stances on many core GOP issues are simply out of touch with the rest of the party nationally. That will become painfully obvious as the GOP marches through a series of southern primary elections. I suspect he will drop out shortly after the Michigan primary, which is the next one he stands to do somewhat decently on.
Regardless of how you shape this issue, even now, the question is not if but when the GOP Establishment will coalesce around Marco Rubio. He still is showing well nationally and in a variety of other primary state polls. He has time, though not so much, to turn this around. He can finish third and maybe even second in South Carolina, which will get him back on the right track. But he has to perform and his ability to rebound is up in the air and has yet to be truly tested. Signs are showing that he will aim to get back onto a positive message going into South Carolina. It doesn't hurt that he has the endorsement of Senator Tim Scott who is trying to make the case for Rubio to the South Carolina electorate.
Ultimately, the RNC does not yet have faith in the general election viability of the three remaining Establishment candidates. Their inability to manage this race before it really got started put the GOP and perhaps the balance of the country on a very tenuous track. Better management of the field and an understanding of the dynamics within the GOP base and broader electorate could mean a very different story for all candidates still involved. However, the longer the GOP powers that be stall and the more that they want to appease the insurgency, the bleaker that the chances for this counter-insurgency becomes.
The mainstream and RNC is failing half of its electorate right now. The Party's cold relationship with Trump and Cruz is pretty well known by now, and they're still without a true alternative that can take back the GOP's course.
If the national party is actually interested in stopping Trump or Cruz (and this is a very legitimate 'if'), time is slipping for creating a strong counter-insurgency. As it stands going into South Carolina, this is still the counter-insurgency that never was.
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