A Super Election Day Revolt

As messy as things are for the Republican field in the primary election, the Democrats are possibly facing General Election day woes in November. Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders are getting an enormous amount and support from the different corners of the party. I'm not yet comfortable saying that this is an unprecedented amount of enthusiasm (because 2008 was at a fever pitch), but the level of emotion right now is certainly epic.

With the enthusiasm of high emotion comes the decision-making of high emotion, and this emotion that the Democrats have channeled is poised to backfire in November.

As has recently been making the political headlines, Bernie Sanders and supporters are pushing back hard against the current system that pits Clinton far ahead of him in the all-important delegate count for the party's nomination. Of course, it would make sense that with Sanders' narrowest of losses in Iowa and dominance in New Hampshire, that he should be enjoying a comfortable lead going into a South Carolina that he will likely lose by 15+ points. But there's a catch: superdelegates. The superdelegate deficit for Sanders truly has an insurmountable appearance to it.

These superdelegates are essentially un-pledged delegates that are free to support any candidate of their choosing regardless of the outcome of their state's primary. They are most commonly in this role based on status (even former status) as an elected party official or leader, though there are still un-pledged delegates that have not held office and were selected by state party officials.

Here's the situation, before a single Nevada vote is cast and with a surge of momentum propelling Sanders forward he is still behind Clinton by 350 delegates, the great abundance of which are pledged superdelegates. Not to mention, before another single vote is cast, The Hill reports that Clinton has already secured the support of half of the superdelegates in Nevada and South Carolina, furthering her lead before the democratic process can occur.

No doubt an awesome weapon for Clinton to have in her back-pocket as the head-to-head polls show a slimming national lead and significant public backing escalating for Sanders in other earlier primary states. As this race intensifies, this voting block could be the extra power that the Clinton campaign needs to secure the nomination. Of course, superdelegates are not pledged until the nomination, but the unofficially declared support from these individuals is the current political reality.

Herein lies the problem. Let's go back to what I said earlier on here, this is a time of high emotion within the Democratic electorate. Bernie Sanders has built a mega-stable of support among the voters that feel out of touch with the system and those that see a government and 'ruling class' that has abandoned them.

Sanders has built an entire campaign on promising to make things fair again for those that the system is unfair to.

So, what does it mean when (per the last national poll) 42% of the Democratic voters feel that their efforts have been marginalized by an Establishment and its rules that void out their votes and opinions? What would be the expected reaction of a large base of people that so whole-heartedly buy into a message from a politician, in a time when politicians are outcasts, a politician that people finally feels care about them?

I submit to you that the reaction would be a very emotional one and would come in two forms in November.

First, the Sanders supporters could very possibly just decide to vote with their feet as a protest against the entire political machine. Historically, this is one of the most symbolic forms of election day protest and could be the refuge of millions of disenfranchised Democrats. Sanders says it himself. When voter turnout is high and people are energized, Democrats win elections. When the people are demoralized and they do not turn out, Republicans typically win. Now, I can't necessarily speak to how true or not that statement is, but perception is reality. The perceptions then among a demoralized base for Sanders could then very possibly be not to show up in November.

An alternative, albeit exponentially less likely, is that the Sanders supporters opt to take the fight to Clinton and the Democratic Establishment in November and vote for the opposition as a sign of protest. Is this possible, sure. However, I still believe that the party would find a way to unify before this happens, but for an emotional base, this would also be an emotional reaction.

All of this to say, that if you are sitting in a leadership role in the DNC and across State parties, it might be time to consider how superdelegates come into play this early in the process. Sanders supporters are already on fire about how this is perceived to be used against them. Easing this now as a point of tension will likely pay dividends at the ballot box in November. With head to head election polls showing razor thin leads, depending on the match-up, a candidate can't afford to be at a loss for votes that they ought to be able to rely on. If the GOP field gets synchronized against the Democrats, November could prove to be a dark time for the Democrats as the people engage in an Election Day Revolt.